hahahahahahahahaha

oh man i am only laughing cause you honestly believe that.

Both Clinton and Obama are electable. They just have different strengths and different weaknesses. I personally think Clinton will have a better shot at winning because of where her strengths are--the Rust Belt, FL.

Still, Obama does better in places like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon. He even puts places like Virginia in play.

Sure. They both are.

I agree. Obama will lose all of the swing states including Florida and Michigan. It will become a total embarrassment for the Democrats..comparable to George McGovern and Michael Dukakis

are highly dubious political media industry tools (commercial polling - not inside campaign polling)

nobody is going to decide that the super delegates will support her based on these or any other polls; by all measures she will not become the nominee or by such slim chance that her liabilities she brings to contest through and until the convention outweigh any other 'asset' she can bring toward a Democrat winning in November; in the judgment of majority voters who are carrying the day and have already delivered Obama to frontrunner status that Hillary can't overcome by whatever means she can put together through the remaining primary/caucus process ( all the possibilities have been examined and she can't get there )  

so the last thread you cling to are commercial media polls.... you can't make a winning argument on that it exposes your inability to understand the realities and practicality of the electoral process;

you are on the side of wasting the historic moment to invigorate the Democratic party under Obama and take back the White House for vital interests of the people who identify as opposition to the GOP and America (I include you in so far as it makes common sense that you would realize there is a benefit for you/family to have a Dem President in 2009)

Jerome, why not put the summary in the post?

Last weekend, during the height of the reporting of Barack Obama's "bitter" comment, SurveyUSA was in the field conducting it's monthly head-to-head polling. Today, we have the results, showing six states flipping between last month and this month -- but not all necessarily in the directions you'd expect.

Full results to follow, but for now:

Two states where Obama led John McCain in March have flipped, with McCain now leading Obama.
Two states where McCain led Obama have also flipped, with Obama now leading McCain, for a net wash.
One state where Hillary Clinton led McCain has flipped.
One state where McCain led Clinton has flipped as well.
Overall, Obama gained ground in 7 of the 15 states we polled, lost ground in six, and remained steady in two; Clinton gained ground in 5 states, lost ground in 8, and remained steady in 2.

With all due respect, what the fuck, exactly, do Obama supporters have to whine about? The last time I checked we were in the process of  doing an end zone dance.

Bill Clinton won Kentucky both times.

They are probably not fond of black candidates in Kentucky.  That would be my guess.

Overall, the SUSA numbers confirm that both candidates have differential strength spatially speaking.

I will give you one clue. They don't like Obama and are not keen on voting for a black.

Massachusetts is suffering from buyers remorse on another black first (governor).

I see little indication that this poll is reflecting anything outside that, and potentially a marginally stronger Clinton presence lingering from the primary.

and although it comes off as very 'latte liberal' it really isnt. Its also white working class in the western part and suburbs,"townies" if you will. These people don't wanna vote Obama anywhere in the country, I just dont think they connect with his only real streangth, a message of "change and hope"

"what states will Obama win to make up for Ohio/Florida alone?"

He can win Ohio.

But assume he doesn't

You have to find those 47 EVs somewhere.

Here's where he will get them, where I believe Hillary has almost no hope:

Colorado 9
Montana 3
Virginia 13
Alaska 3
North Carolina 15
Nevada 5
---------------
Obama +48 EVs to make up for Ohio and Florida, which he'll do fine in.

It's better than talking about whether you are proud, or really proud, or bitter versus frustrated.

Never underestimate the ability of anywhere, let alone Ohio, to vote against their economic self interests!

It also goes hand in hand with the poll showing Obama losing New York.

With Obama as our nominee, the battlegrounds are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Virginia, and California.  Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio are forfeited.  We retain the upper midwest and upper Pacific coast.  

That spells doom.  

Pickpocket?

I think it'll be tough. VA is a natural constituency for McCain, it's practically his home state.  

Warner, if he goes all out for the nominee, could make the difference.

There have been NUMEROUS polls showing Obama and McCain within a few points of each other in Massachusetts.

Pollster   Dates       N/Pop   JM  BO  ?  Other  
SurveyUSA  4/11-13/08  546 RV  46  48  7  -  
Rasmussen  3/18/08     500 LV  42  49  5  4  
SurveyUSA  3/14-16/08  510 RV  47  47  6  -  
SurveyUSA  2/26-28/08  639 RV  42  49  9  -  
SurveyUSA  2/15-17/08  544 RV  46  48  6  -  
SurveyUSA  1/20-21/08  562 RV  50  45  6  -  
SurveyUSA  12/13-15/07 542 RV  45  47  8  -  
SurveyUSA  11/9-11/07  540 RV  47  44  9  -  

Massachusetts is a purple state with Obama as the nominee.

We have Deval Patrick here.  We're pretty sure Obama is pretty much the same deal for the country as a whole, whatever ones' opinions are about it.

Forgive our state for not getting enthusiastic about what look like four years in which nothing much happens other than fixing potholes, cutting losses on bad projects, and windy debating about things that are small in the scheme of things.

I think it has more to do with McCain being an American before he is a Republican and honestly believing that if he were to lose Clinton would do a better job than Obama.

We were all looking forward to your deep analysis, thanks for nothin.

The actual length of this post in terms of inches pushed Jonathan's post calling out Jerome far down the front page.

So this was a two-fer for Jerome!

The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't know how he would have!

- That sounds like a fact now:-)

wat?  Obama was supposed to put Kentucky in play?  Who said that?